Collection: Bayes’ Theorem

This equation was first developed by the Reverend Thomas Bayes in the 1700s. It calculates the probability that one event (A) is true, given that another event (B) is also true. It is used for many purposes, including detecting faults, surveillance, military defence, search-and-rescue operations, medical screening and even spam filters. Its beauty arises because it underlies rational thinking and decision-making, rather than because of any intrinsic aesthetic appeal.

Bayes’ theorem is a mathematical equation used in probability and statistics to calculate conditional probability. In other words, it is used to calculate the probability of an event based on its association with another event. The theorem is also known as Bayes’ law or Bayes’ rule.

Bayes’ theorem is named for English minister and statistician Reverend Thomas Bayes, who formulated an equation for his work “An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.” After Bayes’ death, the manuscript was edited and corrected by Richard Price prior to publication in 1763.